What This Chart Actually Means for COVID-19 

It's Okay To Be Smart
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Stay informed. Stay cautious, but not scared. Listen to scientists and public health officials and follow their guidance. By protecting yourself, you’re protecting the most vulnerable among us. Together we can flatten the curve on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2. More resources below!
#COVID-19 #SARS-CoV-2 #FlattenTheCurve
3Blue1Brown on exponential growth: novids.info/video/fZSlaaqrrHvcqpg.html
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17. mars. 2020





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It's Okay To Be Smart
It's Okay To Be Smart 2 måneder siden
Stay cautious. Stay smart. Stay home. Stay clean. And share this video with everyone you can. Lives may depend on it! I'm on Twitter/Instagram: @DrJoeHanson @okaytobesmart
murph1329 Måned siden
@Rovsea - but remember, DEMS LOVE to tell you how bad the US system is......hint: it's not
Rovsea -
Rovsea - Måned siden
Unfortunately there are some countries whose healthcare resources are so low that they will run out of hospital beds, they will run out of medical supplies, and they will run out of ventilators, and some people will die from that. There is almost no way, at this date, to change that outcome. The real spike in deaths from this disease will most likely come from the places where healthcare has the fewest resources, and thus the lowest line above which a healthcare system is overwhelmed.
Triplemania Måned siden
@murph1329 Strains can develop and be imported anyway. Why would they be worse every time? Which scientists are you referring to?
murph1329 Måned siden
@Triplemania very sad that you can't think for yourself. The "math" is based on fuzzy data and fuzzy logic. Scientist are now saying that by flattening the curve you are prolonging the pandemic which gives the virus time to evolve into new strains....strains that existing immunities from those already infected may not work against. Causing a 2nd outbreak and then a 3rd outbreak. With each outbreak getting worse. There's also zero evidence that by flattening the curve you are causing the outbreak to end. Come June, when most models predict a slow down what's stopping someone from Malaysia or some other country coming over here and starting the whole thing over again, because by keeping everyone away from the virus you are creating a much lower % of the population that is naturally immunized. Don't forget these sames fools, MSM, WHO, and CDC, fed you the lie that mask don't work......which is FINALLY being shown as FAKENEWS. They are lying to you....they've been lying to you this whole time.
Eva Máčová
Eva Máčová Måned siden
Let´s beat it this way: novids.info/video/epuAqJWrg4e1rIY.html Please, share!
uncle_jessie Dag siden
So what happens when we get to the flat part, but then go full stupid and open everything back up too soon?
MR WOLVE 2 dager siden
منو بالة راح على هذا الي يفوت بالشسمة
tbs khidd
tbs khidd 5 dager siden
what is all the mathmatical words in this video?
TheWarrrenator 7 dager siden
Two months later and it’s like A message in a fvckin bottle. Thank you for this invaluable information.
Burgerger Boiz
Burgerger Boiz 8 dager siden
Yay we flatten the curb! What do we do now? We can go outside again
Andy Zhao
Andy Zhao 8 dager siden
Stay Clean Kids.
Meru Hagen
Meru Hagen 9 dager siden
There are many variables that make this presentation incomplete. This should be compared and combined with other data and re-evaluated. For one, not a single "lilypad" is the same. Some are healthier than others. Second, lets not forget the impact of the environment we live in. The world is a big place, and some places are downright toxic for humans but a breeding ground for viruses, and vice versa: some places are good for humans to live in, but are deadly for viruses. There are just too many other aspects that, when taken into consideration, would deliver a more accurate presentation -- especially since we've learnt a lot more about the virus by now.
goldeneddie 10 dager siden
So 'flattening the curve' means 'lengthening the curve'?
Scott Benedict
Scott Benedict 11 dager siden
Let’s not forget about the other ways people will suffer with this virus as some politicians keep people from working. Must be nice to be rich and not worry about such things. Perhaps shove sock people into nursing homes...yeah, that’ll help.
zuly villa
zuly villa 13 dager siden
1.If we would have listened when they announced the corona virus it wouldn't have blown up inner face and less people would've died 2.they showed two different places one graph showing how much people got sick from going to the a parade in Philadelphia in 1918 when the worst influenza hit and there was over 200,000 people who attended and they lost 4,500 people but in St. Louis after two days detecting the first case they shut everything down the graph was lower then Philadelphia 3.exponential growth is scary but doesn't last forever
Gloria ines Ortega giraldo
Rafael the Cannibal
Rafael the Cannibal 15 dager siden
Almost 2 thousand people are dumb enough to understand the current issue we fight.
LOVER QUEEN 17 dager siden
First it was cancer now it’s covid-19.. Stay safe everyone.
David SkyFight
David SkyFight 17 dager siden
But there's one point you're missing: SARS 2 only affects elderly or chronically sick people, so I think governments should have quarantined and protected them beforehand and not let thousands of healthy adults get unemployed!
Damien 16 dager siden
@David SkyFight The plural of anecdote isn't data... and you're not even providing that, just your (as irrelevant as it is idiotic) gut. We are about to hit 290,000 data points... and you're wrong. But I mention Sweden because they decided on exactly the sort of rank idiocy you're advocating... and they're getting smashed in death toll and economic outlook (anyway) compared to their Nordic neighbours. So, kindly sit your idiotic arse down, adults are talking, and trying to stop petulant children like you from exacerbating things.
David SkyFight
David SkyFight 16 dager siden
@Damien How come you talk about Sweden? And also, I can tell you that in my country those who died fall in the above mentioned category. Many of us would easily get over it if infected!
Damien 16 dager siden
Utter bullshit. The death rate is an order of magnitude higher than the flu even in the 18-45 range. Also, thank you Sweden, for trying just this and showing not only the brutal cost, but that it didn't help economically. Away with your ignorant dross.
will liam
will liam 19 dager siden
Vulnerables should do reverse isolation as they can. Rest of us shld be allowed to live our lives
will liam
will liam 19 dager siden
That red curve is only ASSUMED to be bad, ASSUMING that those infected will DIE. Reality is MOST INFECTED are ASYMPTOMATIC and only a SMALL % get very SICK and even LESS DIE
The Crazy Glasses Girl
The Crazy Glasses Girl 19 dager siden
SIR, susceptible, infected, recovered?
The Crazy Glasses Girl
The Crazy Glasses Girl 19 dager siden
Oh okie
will liam
will liam 19 dager siden
R=removed, recovered ot died
Daryl Reece
Daryl Reece 19 dager siden
Given what this video claims, can someone explain to me why the death rate per capita in NYC, where the hospitals were not overwhelmed, exceeds Italy, where the capacity was exceeded?
will liam
will liam 19 dager siden
Unhealthy people are more prone to die
Patrice Art
Patrice Art 21 dag siden
You are missing the point. Step beyond the corona smokescreen. And you can see. That's smart.
NAISHA Depina 21 dag siden
who is watching this because your teacher wants you to
ww2optorch 22 dager siden
Advice from health professionals isn't always right (we probably all know someone who has experienced being misdiagnosed or received advice from a doctor which was wrong for them). We need to do the research and use our minds to weigh and reason everything. There are many internationally acclaimed scientists, experts in epidemiology and related sciences, who do not agree with total shutdowns of economies and total isolation of health people. I can't emphasize this enough---don't be too quick to accept the popular narrative about covid19; research the issue for yourself.
will liam
will liam 19 dager siden
Listen to credible Epidemiologist not MDs
IonianGarden 21 dag siden
=research the issue for yourself.= Please Do Not Confuse Your Google Search With My PHD DEGREE! www.amazon.com/Please-Confuse-Google-Search-Ceramic/dp/B01CL68Z0C
Jake n' Ado
Jake n' Ado 25 dager siden
Spoiler alert we on the tall curve
gskibum 25 dager siden
One of the things (definitely not the only thing) I have noticed Team Total Lockdown doesn't get is that comparison between Philadelphia and St Louis during the Spanish Flu. The graph in this video shows a ~3.5 month span of time of a pandemic that lasted about 15 months. Team Total Lockdown thinks St Louis had fewer infections from start to finish, when in fact all they did was spread out the same number of infections over a longer span of time. But Team Total Lockdown likes to pretend that St Louis had fewer infections over the entire pandemic.
Tiny Mcgoo
Tiny Mcgoo 23 dager siden
They also focus on one example and ignore others. - St. Louis had a death rate of .358% locked down at the start of their curve. - New York City was at .452% locked down before their curve started and was locked down roughly the same amount of time as St. Louis. - Rochester, NY locked down after their curve started and was locked down shorter than St. Louis by a fair bit and they had a death rate of .359% functionally the same as St. Louis. - Philadelphia was .748%, they were locked down just a tad shorter than Rochester, NY and they locked down further into their curve. Keep in mind that Philly had that very large parade just before/right at the start of the curve. So while it is certainly benefits one's narrative to compare a high rate to a low rate, when you start looking at a broader picture the difference becomes less striking and the questions are not so easily answered. The rate of the US was .458%, that is .1% higher than St. Louis.
shaggs31 26 dager siden
Re-watching this in May. Looking back on this hole Covid thing. It turns out that nothing about this video is actually what happened. It makes sense to flatten the curve to not overwhelm health care. But our health care never was even close to be overwhelmed. But still are expected to stay home and flatten the curve. Joe can you please make a video explaining how our government failed to listen to any part of this video?
gskibum 25 dager siden
@jad dd Thank you for agreeing with my "vast swaths of the nation" statement. And by definition, the asymptomatic are not a burden on the hospitals. How in the hell can an asymptomatic person be a burden on a hospital when they're not going to the hospital? Christ on a stick are you ever stupid.
jad dd
jad dd 25 dager siden
@gskibum some states and cities are different than others an the mast majority seem to be asymptomatic so the lie of ''overburdening'' hospitals are false 🤨
gskibum 25 dager siden
@jad dd Regardless of degree of flatness in any particular locale, across vast swaths of the nation the goal of not overburdening hospitals was achieved by a huge margin.
jad dd
jad dd 25 dager siden
If you look at the graphs no curve was ever flatted but more of a roller coaster
Danny Mor
Danny Mor 26 dager siden
Ha! I knew calculus will come in handy one day!
MajicalTryHrd 28 dager siden
Just in here for school work
CW productions
CW productions 29 dager siden
The us is handeling this virus horribly
Priya Surana
Priya Surana 29 dager siden
I learned that because the virus’s growth was so rapid, the medical centres weren’t enough to care for all the patients. This is increasing the death rates - more people are dying. I learned that each day the number of people getting infected squares so for example if one day there are 50 people infected, the next day a 100 people could be infected. This information demonstrates how deadly and speedy the growth of the virus exceeds. Also, on some day the virus would be very less but it can drastically grow the next day. This is called exponential growth. Scientists have observed that the virus is doubling everyday by 1.4%. Logistic growth is when eventually the virus will stop.
Brian Odom
Brian Odom Måned siden
Confirms what I’ve been saying to my friends. We are simply flattening the curve not reducing the number of infections. We’re simply delaying the inevitable. Yes, it saves lives, but if grandma was going to get infected without lockdown, she’ll still get infected eventually with a lockdown. But how far do we flatten the curve? A year? Two years? And if it’s true that people can get reinfected, then flattening the curve will actually have a negative effect to where it will stick around forever rather than just burning itself out.
Jordan Dwiggins
Jordan Dwiggins 13 dager siden
If the curve is flattened the percentage of people able to be held in the hospital will be drastically higher than if the curve keeps going far beyond the capacity point. That will save a huge number of lives. Flattening the curve will also give us way more time to find a vaccine that will also save innumerable amounts of lives. If 90% of the people who get the virus get it before the vaccine is found and when there is no room in the hospitals there will be a huge difference in total deaths.
Mo Alston
Mo Alston 17 dager siden
So if it menat to be it will be
E Yin
E Yin Måned siden
very good graph explaining why some countries are hit harder than others.
Gloria ines Ortega giraldo
Thank you
Ryan Sawhill Aroha
Ryan Sawhill Aroha Måned siden
Thank you Dr. Joe and thank you PBS! A month later, this is still my go-to video for helping people understand the nature of this pandemic.
Rosalina Chemical
Rosalina Chemical Måned siden
I have to stay at home for a month more, but I suppose it's necessary.
Sam Ravenelle
Sam Ravenelle Måned siden
you cant spell virus with U and I
NOMADdaf Måned siden
What this misses is that only around 2% will ever really need healthcare. We should have quarantined those at risk people and let everyone else get it and get over it. This could have been over a month age.
MA LIFE Måned siden
Masks4Medics are doing a great thing! Together, we will stop COVID! Follow Masks4Medics on NOvids and other social media! Share if you care! www.masks4medics.com
Darryl Bradshaw
Darryl Bradshaw Måned siden
1.9k capitalist terror extremists
jad dd
jad dd 25 dager siden
You're just extremely stupid.........
don bleck
don bleck Måned siden
Why are we never to discuss immune health, what we can do to support the immune system. It’s always under the assumption that there’s this big boogeyman, that the virus harms your body. Most medical doctors are victims of this education. It's time for open discussion and using the scientific method. Which isn't being done yet.
don bleck
don bleck Måned siden
One size doesn’t fit all. This is basically flatten the curve: Kick the can down the street. We’re just going to wait until, when? Until the vaccine is produced or until a drug comes out. The assumption is that the immune system of all of us is equally weak. That’s what this is based on. The assumption is that all of us are going to get it and all of us will suffer from it.
don bleck
don bleck Måned siden
gskibum 25 dager siden
LoL at the kook that cites the quack Mercola on a science page.
CP trikester
CP trikester Måned siden
So, today is April 20th. Has the curve flattened enough or should everyone still live in fear? When does the fear let up, or is it really a political thing now?
jad dd
jad dd 7 dager siden
@Espakuz • Most other countries didn't lock down
Espakuz •
Espakuz • 8 dager siden
jad dd so I guess every country on earth is on it as well right!
jad dd
jad dd 29 dager siden
It was a political thing from the start
That Duck
That Duck Måned siden
You should pare up with MatPat from the film and game theory channels. Y'all would make such a great and funny/educational team.
n8rm Måned siden
Now we have people rallying at our state capitols to re-open and get back to work. I saw a lady being interviewed on TV at one of these rally literally saying "I ain't afraid of this, the wind is blowing the sun is shining, you can hug me or shake my hand or even sneeze on me I don't care". What is it with the arrogance of some human beings.?
timothy lall
timothy lall Måned siden
yes this video is good but we need to find solution of this virus we can not lock our self and this virus will remain alive in our surrounding if we did not found this cure we r locked forever
Evan Koren
Evan Koren Måned siden
does anyone else realize that the 3rd stage on the lego saturn v in the back is upside down?
Jaime Lopez
Jaime Lopez Måned siden
JennyTulls Måned siden
how tf did you just make me watch this what
flowery teacup
flowery teacup Måned siden
what i learned from this: we need to increase the capacity in our healthcare system after this providing it with greater funding and more encouragement for people wanting to go to med. school to result in a higher spike being able to be controlled by the healthcare system resulting in a shorter amount of time for the pandemic/epidemic to last and therefore shorter amount of time for quarantining/lockdowns/isolation and to make sure our economy is still alive so we don't have to send out stimulus checks that appear out of thin air in order to get our company into more debt and to make sure that cities that thrive on economies such as tourism won't get hit so bad so that the cycle of poverty doesn't hit so many people so we can keep our people, healthcare system, and economy alive because plenty of people live paycheck to paycheck and without their job the cycle of poverty just gets worse resulting in less taxes going to the government and less money going to the healthcare system...
Sean Hollingsworth
Sean Hollingsworth Måned siden
The original models were predicting up to 2 million deaths in the USA alone; and that was WITH the most draconian absolute adherence to complete isolation being a part of that model.
Froward Thinker
Froward Thinker Måned siden
This is extremely misleading. It isnt "exponential growth" its increased testing! You sir are fake news.
Froward Thinker
Froward Thinker Måned siden
That "bad" part lasts a lot less than that "good" option right? What about the capacity for our economy? Is that something you arent even concerned with?
Froward Thinker
Froward Thinker Måned siden
@Froward Thinker 170k people has died currently and if this continues for the rest of the year it wouldn't surprise me if we reach over a million.
Froward Thinker
Froward Thinker Måned siden
@Frijole this virus is nowhere as deadly as the flu if 1918 and we have a much more advanced medical field and understanding of the human body. You are insane for saying "millions of people dying".
Frijole Måned siden
Christopher Terry - Yes, if we just let it run wild, the worst of it would be over quicker, because eventually everybody would get infected, so they’d die or gain immunity. That can still take a while though; that 1918 flu pandemic had a resurgence in 1919 as soldiers came home from the war. The economic impact of social distancing is painful, but the economic impact of thousands or millions of deaths is a lot worse. A study on that same 1918 flu pandemic found that “cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over”, and early results from east Asia’s handling of COVID-19 suggest that still holds true today. wjla.com/news/nation-world/study-early-aggressive-social-distancing-can-save-the-economy Another study from the University of Chicago found that the economic benefit of moderate social distancing in the US came to $4-8 trillion. fortune.com/2020/03/30/social-distancing-economic-benefits-coronavirus/
Chris Måned siden
I don’t think you appreciate how pandemics work. You can’t fight an airborn disease by social distancing. Anything short of martial law will leave the virus avenues to spread and even that might still leave room to spread by delivering supplies to people. You fight it via herd immunity which requires people to be exposed. Social distancing has had no effect according to the data and if we see a resurgence of covid this fall it would be a direct result of social distancing because we didn’t achieve herd immunity. Thereby increasing deaths in the long run which is supposedly what we are trying to avoid. Yes we flattened the curve but widened it in the process. You also assume that hospitalization saves lives and this is why we don’t want to overwhelm the system. Wrong. Doctors have said if a person gets that critical they will most likely die. Now we do have a treatment but it’s most effective if applied early. Thank your governors for pretending to be doctors and trying to stop doctors from doing their job. NY, MI, NV I’m looking at you. People need to stop thinking they are smarter then nature, can out-nature nature, and start working with nature.
Ali Almahamid
Ali Almahamid Måned siden
Why is it important to flatten the curve? Explain what it means to "flatten the curve.
Josh Reid
Josh Reid Måned siden
Very informative, very well produced, no partisanship - love it!
Joseph Stumpf
Joseph Stumpf Måned siden
This is great! Thanks!
Joseph Stumpf
Joseph Stumpf Måned siden
Also, nice job with the Why d all Disney princesses look like babies.
poopyoof boi
poopyoof boi Måned siden
My dad noticed when it first started, so he was stockpiling food, sending out articles to friends, sending tips so I was like “iTs NoT sUcH A BiG dEaL, wHy ArE yOu So PaNiCkEd AbOuT iT?” So now we have TONS of food, and we have not gone to get food in WEEKS. I’m glad he wasn’t like everyone else that was like “iTs JuSt ThE fLu, DoNt PaNiK!!!”
JustAnotherHuman .-.
My teacher is making us answer questions for school...who else?
Herman Grove
Herman Grove Måned siden
Almost a month already? Woah
JoshuaPows Måned siden
CHO reacts fast? hmmmm
Creativity Forever
Creativity Forever Måned siden
Well, it looks like a win-win game but not for humankind until an antivirus gets release to fight it back effectively 🤔
roger white
roger white Måned siden
it's ok to be smart so i just came here to say this is why i comment on this video while it is on pause, corona is all BS. yes it is a flu, but not a we must shut down the world flu like they are making us believe.
roger white
roger white 8 dager siden
@Espakuz • but how many of those 60k were actually flu victims.the numbers might be real,but many doctors are coming out saying that they are encourage to write on the death certificates covid-19 when they are not. if so contagious and deadly ,why have i not got it, i am 62 work with 100+ coworkers , my friend works with 600 coworker at Kruger ,has not got it either, not even people getting sick.so i still believe this is some sort of government test,for what reason i do not know,but we will eventually find out, and we have Bill Gates wanting to vaccinate the whole world, he is not a doctor of any kind,just lately Italy has declared him a criminal for many death that has occurred through some of his vaccination programs that he has done in the past,
Espakuz •
Espakuz • 8 dager siden
roger white 60k Americans died in one month and the most deadliest flu of the century was 2018 which killed 61k people in 8 months! Does that sound like a flu?
Rick Russell
Rick Russell Måned siden
Excel Avanzado para Administración de Empresas
Lean how to build a SIR model on virus or epidemia growth in Excel and know how evolution pattern develops. Though in Spanish, subtitles are available: novids.info/video/qp94b2m6mG3VfnY.html.
Brijesh Kumar
Brijesh Kumar Måned siden
Natural Selection curves matters !
Mikaila Mawby
Mikaila Mawby Måned siden
But what about animals, COVID-19 might not attack people but there will still be forest animals and things like that to feed off of?
D Bee
D Bee Måned siden
We look poised now to wipe it out in our country. Australia. Thank God. But it ain't over for a while yet.
steam steam
steam steam Måned siden
Criminal negligence of governments does not mean a lack of understanding of something as simple as the concept exponential growth was the problem in the Covid-19 response or lack thereof. The priorities of the left-liberal oligarchy, totalitarians taking "The West" hostage for White g3nocide, replacement, "climate" bloviating apocalypse cultism, open border fetisjism, aversion to the mere idea of (having to- protect White people instead of spnding it on other things is what made us defenseless against this pandemic even though our nations are supposed to be so wealthy on paper. We live in a dystopian autocracy determined by the J3w money behind depraved puppet governments and media. They probably figured old White men dying suffocating in their own lung fluid was something they didn't mind at all either.
zhou sei
zhou sei Måned siden
the u.s. government and every major u.s. news outlet should watch this... o wait, tragedy sells
Pascal V
Pascal V Måned siden
Wait a sec. If you isolate and prevent people to get the virus, the only thing you do is delay the moment the epidemic would get exponential. That's all you do. and because you simply cannot isolate people forever, at the moment you release them the virus will do its exponential growth. Your logic is not taking into account that the right way to do quarantine is not to isolate everybody from everybody but to isolate the sick from others. You're basically lying and deceiving peoples with your pseudoscientific logic and you are a traitor to good social and economic health. I hope you are not doing this in purpose and I hope you have enough brain to realize your gross mistake. I personally think you are a perfect example of stupidity disguised as "smart".
Pascal V
Pascal V Måned siden
@some thing: That is not an opinion it's a hardcore fact: vaccines do not work. Use your brain for once and open your eyes and most of all stop watching TV. That is not a reliable source of real knowledge. Read scientific reviews instead.
Pascal V
Pascal V Måned siden
@some thing You forgot to mention that vaccines do not work, they never and will never work.
some thing
some thing Måned siden
Here is a small example for your brain.... We stay to prevent spreading they create a vaccine, vaccines always take a long time to make like really long
crowthrone Måned siden
No, you do it to slow the increase in daily new cases and to allow for the amount of active cases to go down. Meanwhile, testing should be able to catch up so that the majority of sick people are quarantined, like you said. People will not be "released" abruptly but gradually while still employing social distancing meausures, in such a way that containment is feasible if new cases arise.
roberto fernandez
roberto fernandez Måned siden
Spoke a little too soon
Dmitry Levin
Dmitry Levin Måned siden
Coronavirus Theme: novids.info/video/c3uAiYaYnHrNsXI.html
Janine Lindgren
Janine Lindgren Måned siden
great job! explained well, thank you.
Jannice Cordelia
Jannice Cordelia Måned siden
You're so good at explaining. Even i understand it. Im shook. More people should watch this
Daniel Gomes
Daniel Gomes Måned siden
Hi, Joe! Too much time with no more videos... Are you okay? Are you safe? Sorry for being so direct, but I would be more calm if I could know that you - and the It's OK To Be Smart team - are fine today. Cheers from Brazil!
Manan Gandhi
Manan Gandhi Måned siden
My analysis on covid 19 global growth factor novids.info/video/e2yDsHfMZIvPmWk.html
Eboy Eman
Eboy Eman Måned siden
What is the name of the missing fourth bucket
Official -a-
Official -a- Måned siden
Ur all dumb in the head
Official -a-
Official -a- Måned siden
Piss off m8
Greg Poumakis
Greg Poumakis Måned siden
This video is criminally ridiculous.
Simulating an epidemic
Ganger 3,5 mill
How Your Memory Works
Where Did Viruses Come From?